just to put a perspective on the US economy

The current global crisis has got the economists and lay-man the world over equally interested. Obviously the biggest economy of the world is not only the originator but also the worst effected as well. As against the popular media notions that the worst is about to over and that the recession is going to end to soon, there is in fact a realistic glooming threat of it becoming the worst ever seen deflation seen in human history. Federal government’s balance sheet is the worst nightmare of any economist. Please look at the below figures to get an idea:
1) By mid-May 2007, the US National Debt stood at approximately at mind-boggling $8.85 trillion -- i.e. approximately $28,000 for every American.
2) The current account deficit of the United States for 2006 is estimated to be in excess of $850 billion. This approximates to 7% of its GDP. Surely, even for the US, this is unsustainable.
3) In the current year 2009, the feds will take in about $1.9 trillion in taxes and spend $3.6 trillion. This when the current US government deficits stand at a staggering 13 % of the GDP already. Irish and Latvian economics are going bust at 11% levels !!!
4) The US is running a budget deficit this year equal to four times the biggest budget deficit ever - a record set just last year. In a matter of minutes, China could dump enough US dollars to set off alarms all over the world. All of a sudden dollar holders would rush for the exits - each one trying to get out before the others. In minutes, the dollar market could collapse...taking down US Treasury bonds with it.
5) Obama's budget map is still fanciful. It imagines a loss of only 1.2% of GDP in the current downturn...and a quick return to growth, with a 3% increase in 2010. Yet, the last report showed the US economy contracting at a 6% annual rate. As for growth in 2010...where would it come from? Consumer credit is falling at its fastest pace in 18 years. Consumer incomes are falling too - down 1.2% in the last 12 months.
6) There have been 20 lakh job losses in the US in the first three months of 2009, pushing the unemployment rate to 8.5% of the total workforce. This is the highest since November 1983. If we were to talk about underemployment, which takes into account people who are working part time because they can't find full-time jobs, this rate goes up to 15.6%. When people don't earn, they don't spend, and that leads to a contracting GDP.
7) the economies of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States), which make up two-thirds of the world's output, experienced a 7.5% contraction on an annualised basis, during the first three months of this year.
8) The US government has shrewdly disguised its National Medical health insurance scheme deficit in the hindsight of accounting procedures. Their medical insurance is more like a ponzi scheme, where the new investers pay for old investments. The fed doesn’t show the money it shall need to spend in the future to take care of the medical insurance, in today’s liabilities column, and thus neatly escapes reporting it in its balance sheets. The figure of deficit growing over a period of time, today stands at an exaggerating $56 trillion!!! How do they plan to cover for that???
9) The US dollar has already lost more than 20% its value against most other currencies of the world. Printing more dollars left, right and center is not going to help the cause. You cannot write checks to yourself and be richer!!!
10) Late Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein was fully aware of this paradigm. Seeking to exploit the inherent weakness of the US dollar, Saddam wanted to trade his crude in Euros, which would have lead to a lower demand for the US Dollar and thereby triggered a dollar collapse. And those were his 'weapons of mass destruction -- WMD.’

Just to put how hollow our global economic basis is please consider the following figures:
1) There are about $1,600 trillion worth of derivatives in the world.
2) $125 trillion worth of real estate and business assets.
3) $100 trillion worth of stocks and bonds secured by assets.
4) $65 trillion worth of government bonds (rising rapidly).
5) $4 trillion worth of actual currency...and only between $2 and $4 trillion worth of gold and silver.
It is obvious to make from the above that the US currency is going to devalue quite a bit in future. When an empire is old and decaying...they think the government should spend "whatever it takes" to take care of them. This attitude helps destroy the empire...thus making room for the next one.
US government treasury bonds are the world over traded biggest commodity in terms of value and hence it gives the federal government a great leverage to print the dollar and go on the spendthrift way. There are two biggest buyers of the treasury bonds i.e. the Chinese government and the federal government itself. However ironical it may sound, Chinese government here acts as a shopkeeper who pays its client (the US people) to buy stuff from its shop!!! For the first time in more than 5 decades, the US treasury bonds were not finding buyers in the New York stock exchange earlier this year, the federal government quickly retracted and pulled back the number of bonds being issued.
The Brazilian currency, real, overtook the South African rand today as the world's best-performing currency. Brazil posted a $146 million current account surplus in April, its government announced yesterday, the first such surplus since September 2007. Brazil's government has introduced aggressive new tax cuts and new trade agreements (mostly with China), and has thus become the darling of the currency trade. Low taxes, open trade and account surplus is good for a nation's economy?
Don’t judge a nation’s economic prowess on the basis of its stock market performance. On that basis US stock market should have collapsed completely by now, and these are not just my views, infact it is shared by some greats like Warren Buffet, who has gone on to extent to advice people not to buy US government treasury bonds!!! People associated with the stock markets don’t think really, they react!! And this applies to everbody including myself. If not then there would be no explanation of buying the Satyam shares at 24 Rs value, selling it at 49.75 Rs per share in the rally leading upto L&T announcing hiking its stake from 4% to 12%, and now when the share is trading at around 60 Rs levels. The share was fundamentally not buyable at any of the above price levels, but of course because of the arbitrage opportunity present, many like me clocked a good handsome profit of almost 100%!!!
There could be major shifts in the world order in the coming times and we shall all be witness to the same. These are some exciting times and we are in the middle of history being written for our country India.

Spirituality- way of life

Spirituality confronts every human being at least once in his lifetime. The mystic world of supernatural being attracts everybody, for some because of unheard powers, for others because of anxiousness and to others because of the fear of the unknown. I see spirituality as a way to travel to inner consciousness and achieve peace and tranquility. Well at least this was the best explanation I could think of , otherwise there is no way to explain different religions and their starkly different methods and methodology, but all still delivering the same result. Human beings are different from other animal species as they have been evolved to put more importance and use their brain power instead of raw physical power like other beasts. Whether we realize the same or not is a different case all together. Even present day modern science has also proven that the brain emits frequency of different wavelengths and processes also the incoming frequencies in a particular fashion. This was the same reason that stones like diamond, and panna etc find special use and mention in historic and vedic texts.
Yoga was the result of our vedic innovation and is, extensively based on the harmony between human body, mind and nature. Realizing the brain power used to give unprecedented and mystic powers to the yogis, which came to be seen as supernatural by the lesser mortals. In fact there is a good article I read from an orkut community run by an OSHO disciple Shivo, which states facts about the year 2012, which is described as the end of the mayan calendar.

YEAR 2012
December 21st in the year 2012 is the Ascension Day for the evolved human
beings. It can be the doomsday for those who have not followed the path of truth.
Actually every human being has an individual consciousness. Planet earth also has its
own consciousness which is very clear and pure. That's why the whole Galaxy and the
planet earth are ascending. Year 2012 is the transition period for planet earth when it will
enter in the fourth dimension from the present position in the third dimension. Planet
earth has been continuously ascending since late 1980's and its vibrational frequency has
been increasing ever since. In early 1990's, it was vibrating at the
frequency of 7 hertz resonance. By December 2012, it shall vibrate at
the frequency of 16.8 hertz resonance. That means the vibrational
frequency of Earth will become double. More vibrational frequency
indicates more purity and the energy, i.e. earth heading towards higher
dimension. So, this is the period when the our planet is going to ascend
into the fourth dimension, becoming more pure, divine and full of love
energy.


The above written figures are all scientifically deduced, and don’t really invite lot of criticism. Point is whether we can find any coherence between the facts written above and our daily practices. Since the earth’s vibration frequency is rising, our body’s vibration frequency should be going up too, to maintain equilibrium. This shall keep sickness away, fill an individual with life energy and lead to healthy and happy life so to say.
Doing meditation and prayer is said to up the brain’s functional activity and work higher level frequencies. This gives a feeling of supreme joy and elation. Point I am trying to come up here is, one need not meditate and pray just because he or she believes in some god or deity or some religious leader. One should be doing the same only because this helps to keep our mind healthy and effectively working. Just like most other things as could be seen in the present society, lot of the stuff is done in religion’s name, but most of them has some good scientific reason behind it, only needed is a receipting mind and watchful eyes to notice the same. For example:- fasting. Fasting is prescribed in almost all religions worldwide as a religious activity, whereas medically speaking, it is a wonderful activity which frees the body of toxins and should be undertaken once fortnightly, again co-incidentally the same as described by the religious texts.
Same way there was and there is lot of stress put on individuals to pray and meditate in the morning. This shall keep your brain active and working in higher state of consciousness throughout the day, thus eventually leading to a more meaningful life. Do some pooja (any thing you like), and a bit of meditation, it will surely help you.

Doing pooja is good

I had sundar kand paath done at my house yesterday. It was a decent big affair. There was a gathering of some 30-35 people. All of my mother’s clubmates came to be part of the holy occasion.

Everybody had a book in their hand and all read the complete sundar kand together. It took almost 2 hours to complete the same. I had been part of such a function for the first time. Even I too read the paath along with everybody else and it felt really good. Maybe it was because collectively there were so many people doing it together or just that this holy literature does really have some magical power, I don’t know, but it surely did had some effect. There was some sense of jubilation and elation. I thoroughly enjoyed the experience and look forward to such more functions in future life :).
After the 2 hour long marathon naturally everybody was exhausted, singing continuously for so long. There were some light snacks arranged as well. Ladies and kids seemed to enjoy it every bit, along with free mood chattar-pattar ofcourse ;) .

Patience, Vision and Knowledge

I was talking to one of my friend the other day, and somehow it came out while discussing the future that above three are the differentiating factor between the successful and the wannabe.
Patience: It is probably the most important of the three. It is said that Rome was not built in a day!!! Actually the fact is that the present generation wants instant gratification, be it be food, love, job or any other pursuit. Nobody takes time to be better at their stuff; ‘good is enough’ is the new mantra. Today’s generation doesn’t want to be the best student, or son, or lover, or poet…..everything is small and smaller and then just finishes there itself. Our forefathers left great legacy for us in all fields whether literature, or spirituality, or medical science, or poetry, or patriotism, or any other for that matter. I am not sure if we would be able to give the coming generations anything other than our casual attitude towards life. Patience is missing. Take time, devote yourself to a cause and show dedication guys.
Vision: another integral part to human existence. If we don’t think for future, what would be really want to achieve than. There must be dreams, some daring, and some passion and hence some vision for the future. Don’t settle for the average you get immediately, try for good and better, which might require some more effort but is definitely worth the wait.

Knowledge: Though every body knows that knowledge is indispensable, but I guess we depend too much on others for it. Be it be fellow workers, sub-ordinates, or even seniors. Be self dependent. Read more, read with intent, try to gather stuff that might be of help, or just gather some knowledge base and then see how that can be put to use. Knowledge helps to decide the direction to travel, where the efforts should be put, saves time and helps to get maximum efficiency.

Love your job guys

Read the May edition of India today magazine and the cover story was of the Indian students for whom it is difficult to get jobs even after getting the lucrative MBA degrees. It seems the bad markets conditions has led to almost most of the companies to freeze their new hiring plans and this has led to a sudden decline in the demand of young MBA grads. There was a write up about a young boy who had a decent job for 4.2 Lac p.a salary package in pune. He left the job and joined some MBA school. Now after two years, he sits idle having spent all his savings, has a loan of 5 lacs to repay, a family to take care of and no job in hand!!!
Reading the article I realized the importance of the metaphor “one bird in hand is better than two in bush”. Believe me how much ever bad is your software industry job, it still atleast pays you, and that is far more important at the end of the day. I am not trying to demotivate anybody, but think twice really before taking a decision, times are not that good you see!!!!

Election Article #4

Elections 2009 result: indications for the future

General election results in India are always the much awaited phenomenon at the national level. Lot of drama, lots of anxiousness is involved and the mandate that has came for 2009 stands for a real exciting finish to it. Nobody in the wildest of the dream would have imagined such a landslide win for congress party, especially after such dismal performance at the centre and lackluster leadership shown by it. Somehow though nothing seemed to have affected the performance of the party which came out so strong and is going to form the government without any major post poll alliance with any of the regional parties.
Once again it was proved that the road to delhi goes from the state of UP. And whole of the national media is all praise for the princely heir of congress Mr. Rahul Gandhi. Hard work does payoff and it does sooner than later as is evident in this case. Rahul’s slam bam rallies across the country seems to have worked its magic.
Anyhow this was the result. What I want to think for is the future implications of these results. Lalu’s complete political demise, Paswan losing his own seat, Mayawati cornered, Jayalalitha losing her voice, Left parties left stranded, Akali dal’s dismal performance, INLD’s complete backlash in haryana, shibu soren’s unceremonious exit in jharkhand, I mean all the above says one thing very very loud and clear:- “Regional parties are totally rejected at the central level”. This is a welcomed move for the future politicos of India. This will completely forgo the whole idea of kingmakers and the blackmail politics played by these regional parties. All these parties drew their strength from the chaos in the market and asked for bigger and better prices for their support. We all can certainly hope for a fresh new chapter in Indian politics after such massive landslide win of congress party. Not only that, even though it might be said that BJP performed really poorly, but still it has respectable numbers and some national consensus too. Surely BJP can be a good constructive opposition in the parliament for the nation.
Indian politics should revolve around two poles only, at the national level, these are undoubtedly Congress and BJP as of now, and these election results are a move in that direction.
It might however be too soon to really presume such a phenomenon, because none of these lost leaders are going to conceive defeat that easily and we might have to witness some real hard times and violent times even before there is a long lasting peace. The founding stone however has been laid……

Why are we comfortable doing a job?

I have seen people are by default always looking for a job only. Even though they might crib about money, timings, bad boss and what not, also they might even have elaborate plans as well for their venture, however still not even 1 among 100 of these really materialize. It is very hard to leave job even though it is inherently so very bad. Actually the answer lies in the deep human psyche.
Maybe in the deep gone era of primitive human population, it was very difficult for the hunters of the society to hunt for food and stuff and the others who were dependent on them, had it very simple, just sitting easily and waiting for food to arrive. Although they might not be respected much but still got enough food for survival without much effort, decent bargain if we could say. We are still the same in many aspects. We are very much happy if not confronted with challenges. Who would want to tread an unknown territory, it is certainly not easy.
Job comes with all these benefits. There is a certainty of work. There is limit of work. There is no undue responsibility of others. You always have somebody else to blame. It is lot easier to give the deciding power to others for you. This saves you from the responsibility and hence answerability. This shall also explain why majority of the people in society are followers as well instead of leaders and you see so many lectures, seminars and workshops for developing leadership. Nobody teaches to be a follower!!!

How can we think out of box??

Every person has his own way of thinking, his own viewpoint and it is built over a period of time influenced by his upbringing. Different people process the same information differently, they take out the relevant stuff from it and leave the rest, and as we know relevance is very relative term. I had mentioned the same phenomenon some time back in my other post on Applied economics.

I was reading some article today and was annoyed, anguished and astounded by the use of term ‘Creativity’. I don’t understand what the phrase ‘think out of box’ would really mean. I don’t think we can think of changing our thinking ideology. This would subdue our whole existence itself. I can understand that some people might have some perception about a thing and it sounds quite radical to others who might say that it is certainly out of the blue or ‘out of the box’.

Then later as I sat pondering over this issue I realized I was wrong seeing the problem. Issue is that a society is quite large and when there is a task at hand, the people at large of the society shall have same methodology towards the solution because of their common culture and upbringing. It is here that some different approach is desired and when they come up with something is when it is said to be ‘out of the box’.

So how can we think out of the box is the question now. It is certainly not easy, since it is like going against our nature itself. It will more often than not confront with our already set notions. One of the ways for sure could be to go backwards. Let us start from the desired result itself. Let us put ourselves in the place of the beneficiary (for whom we seek the solution) and imagine accordingly. When we do this we have detached from our own self and hence there are no boundaries that we have when we think as ourselves. The beneficiary might not have the same restrictive boundaries as mine and hence when I think as him, I am free of the same and therefore there is a wider wing span of imagination possible. When we think backward there is a certainty of goal which is not there while thinking straight and hence the effort is dispersed. However when we think backwards, we already have the goal stated and hence we know the end result. It is said that when goals are in sight, roads leading to them are made on their own.

Do you agree with above? What else could be good ways for ‘thinking out of box’?

Trip to Jagannath temple

So I left with my family on 3’rd march for our maiden trip to Jagannath puri, the coastal temple city in the eastern state of Orissa.
The train journey was comfortable. We went to kanpur first and then took the bhubneshwar rajdhani from thereon. It was some 19 hours journey and once we reached bhubneshwar, we took cab to puri. It is a nice small town abuzz with activity around the seashore. Next day morning we got ready and left for the temple.
The temple attracts lot of crowd right from the first ray of light in the morning. Here is a mythological logic about the temple diety. It is said that there are four major Dhams of lord Krishna, these are:-
1) Badrinath in north: The lord did his Tap (puja) here; hence people do puja and yoga sadhna here.
2) Rameshwaram in south: Here the lord took bath; hence people who go there offer Ganga water to the lord for Abbhhishek.
3) Jagannath in East: The lord had his meal here; hence here people offer food to lord and there are bhog done 7 times in the whole day.
4) Dwarka in West: Here the lord lived as king; hence is worshipped here as a king.

As you come near to the temple area you will start seeing the endless number of Pandaas. These are the scum of earth who I don’t know how and why have been given the right to maintain the temple. These shall harass you to the last piece of cloth on your body. My father was pretty cool; he gave money as when there were people haggling for it. He didn’t mind spending. But I lost my temper once, had a confrontation and would have certainly hit that one man had my father not intervened, after that of course all of them together might have took me down and all but whatever. The experience got spoiled for me for sure anyways. My family though was quite enjoying the Darshans. My mother wanted to visit this place since very long and was visibly elated to be there finally.
There are three idols in the temple: Lord Krishna, His sister Subhadra, and elder brother Balbhadra. The idols are made new after every 12 years. Whole temple area does have a great aura around itself.
After visiting the temple we came to our hotel. And now the fun part begins. There was vast Bay of Bengal right in front and nothing else to do. I changed the clothes and ran straight to the beach. First wave, second wave, waves after waves and there was sand all over me. What the FUCK!!! It wasn’t supposed to be like this. There is only water in the sea, where does the damn sand came from . Came back to the room. Changed the clothes, cleaned the clothes ( my mom thrashed me and asked me to do it myself). It was an AC room and given the high humidity in Puri, the clothes refused to dry up even. In the evening there was somewhat less heat (we are in May u see!!) and the seabeach also came to life. There were people all around. Hawkers selling eatables, some fisherman selling pearls and stuff, horses and camels for rides, crying kids, yelling aunties, and the damn gorgeous Bengali girl(almost 80% tourists are Bengalis in puri, and she was one among the millions). We thoroughly enjoyed the great sea breeze and had a bit of adventure while camel riding (I am a rajasthani, but it took me 25 years of age and travel to another end of the country for camel riding).
Next day we went for the trip to all the nearby places for sightseeing. Rest of the places didn’t deserve much of mention except for the Konark temple. This is a great temple folks. Truly reflecting on the great architectural skills of our country and the depth in philosophy and social structure. The temple is of lord Sun. The structure is made like there is a big cart holding the temple on it. The idol used to be hanging in air as it was suspended by the magnet at top and earth’s pull from down!! Mother Fucker Britishers took the idol with them for their museum and destroyed a lot of temple building. Even after that whatever is left is damn good too!! The wheels of the cart structure are made such that with the shadow made by the sun during the day, one can accurately calculate the time in the day to the last minute. There is also interesting story the guide told us there. Actually there are art carvings on the stone building of the temple all around it. According to the historians, there was the bloodiest battle of Kalinga that took place here during the time of King Ashoka in 250 BC. What it led to was that the whole area was cleared of men. There were almost no men left in the region. That was the era when there was lesbianism in the society there. This is depicted in the carvings on the temple. Can you imagine there were Lesbians in India 2000 years ago!!!

Anyways came back to hotel room after long day trip to nearby places. We covered almost all the worth visiting sites. Took a nice bath and then dinner…it is time to bed now .

Next day we were supposed to leave puri and reach bhubneshwar. We were to leave at 8 am around. I thought of one final dual with the might sea. Got up early at 4 am, got fresh and changed clothes and rushed towards the sea shore. The sun was to be slightly seen at the other side of the horizon and it appeared to be a big big orange coming out from the ocean. There was amazing sea breeze blowing and giant waves hurling towards the shore. Sat for sometime at the shore but soon got interested enough to get wet!! Stepped down towards the sea front and took waves after waves head on. The cool sea breeze and moist sand beneath the feet made the experience feel like heaven!!! But as is the irony, some or the other thing always goes wrong, there was this one big wave that came out of nowhere, caught me simple dumbfounded, it rose so high and came with lot of force, it took my specs with it. Yes I am almost 6 feet high and was standing on the shore, not even at the water desk, and there was this huge wave that spoiled the mood. I was having sand all over me and poor me, I lost quite a bit of my sight as well . Came back to my hotel room and got big time thrashing from dad and this time even mom as well. But seriously speaking I liked it. I was 10 year old again and enjoyed every moment of my mischief and goof up and later of my scolding!!!

Came to bhubneshwar later in the day and caught our train back the next day early morning. Mostly insignificant stuff, just stayed in the hotel again ( bhubneshwar has bad temperature this time of the year by the way :( ), watched Rajpal Yadav’s ‘main meri patni aur who’, nice romantic comedy movie :).

Election 2009 Article #3

Rahul Gandhi is no different

Hearing Rahul gandhi’s press conference couple of days back was a very bad experience. The congress stalwart openly appreciating the regional party leaders, earlier in NDA, and making comments just right before the election results, was very disheartening. There is no more politics of ideology left. Not even with the congress party and it all pure and white leader like Rahul Gandhi.

It seems that congress is willing to go any distance just to be in power, a fact testified during the no confidence motion over the nuke deal, and an open purchasing of MPs.

To see that even the young leader like Rahul also thinks the same way, is highly demoralizing for the future as well.

Election 2009 Article #2

Continuing on my series of election reporting for this year’s general elections, we shall take a closer look on one of the key UPA ally from the last government – Lalu Prasad Yadav.

Lalu has base only in Bihar. With the breakup of state into jharkhand as well, the state seats have got even lesser. Lalu yadav had a dream run in the centre as the railway minister and could well be called the most successful minister in the Manmohan Singh led government. Railway story sold everywhere right from coporate club house IIM-A to muddy streets of chandni chowk. Are the number hiding the real info, we will get to know only in the next term.

Riding high on confidance, Lalu decided not to share any seat in bihar with congress and hence the pre poll alliance got broken. Lalu shook hands with another loser Ram Vilas Paswan. The idea was to get majority seats in Bihar using the anti incumbency factor against Nitish Kumar’s government, and ask for a better negotiation with the UPA after the elections are over.

The Plan doesn’t seem to be working well though. Firstly Nitish government has done some work in bihar and to a devastated state, that has came as a welcome relief. Secondly, because of the above mentioned reason, the exit polls show that Lalu’s RJD party is hardly getting 3-4 seats in the whole state and the nation as such.

Such weak numbers don’t leave lalu with any major saying at all. If the above said results come out to be true, not only Lalu losses the power in the central government, his allies at the ground level in bihar shall also leave him. This might actually mean an end to Lalu Yadav’s political career. Once not in power he might even find the criminal cases of his neighbors also opened up in his name, rest assured his own are not going anywhere.

One of the political journalist described the above phenomenon as

“Chaube ji ban-ne gaye the Chabbe ji, par rahe na Dubeyji”

Hot Wahi Jo raam rachi rakha

Train to bhubneshwar from Kanpur is a good 18-20 hour journey and gives us a real good time to reflect upon the finer aspects of life, because there is nothing better to do 

I was thinking about my recent past and the hardships I went through and how I came well off it. You know looking back most of the times we will feel that all the stuff that happened, happened for the good and was supposed to be done like that only.

Wise man should not worry about the hardships and take the experience as a learning opportunity. But it hardly goes the ideal way. We all become hysterical, suddenly lost and clueless, almost as soon as we are struck somewhere. It is only afterwards some how when we managed to come out of the hole, which we realize, there was no need to panic in the first place. It is then only that we become wise.

Game theory says that you leave the decision making power to some one else and this shall make your case stronger, as you never make the decision so you shall never be blamed.

That is why leave everything to the almighty and just keep going on. And hence the proverb “Hot Wahi Jo raam rachi rakha”.

Applied economics

There is a simple phenomenon which happens with all of us and all around us. We live in a society, and in ideal case we should be watchful and mindful of everything that happens around us. However we interpret stuff on an individual level and we think about only that stuff which matters to us. For eg. There was this news being flashed about the flood in some district of bihar and how almost 20 people died in there. My mother hearing the same on the news channel, said in lot discontentment, damn the Litchi fruit will be destroyed !!!

There is no effect of 20 people dying and so many families being thrown into sadness, a much as the effect of one year’s destroyed crop of favorite fruit. This is clearly because we didn’t knew the 20 people, but we might have certainly bought the fruit as and when it would have came to our market.

This is the field of applied economics!!

More on the topic later…..

election 2009 article 1

General elections of India are the biggest democratic exercise in the world. With around 1 billion of population the country undertakes mammoth deployment of personal and resources at task to make sure of fair and just polling to elect the elite for the national throne. The fact that about half of the voting population doesn’t even take part in this exercise is disgusting. Anyways being a management student, I find the whole dramarama highly learnable experience, and over the next few days I would try to apply certain management principles to identify parties, candidates and their candidatures.
This is the first post in this regard as I start with my native state and biggest battleground “Uttar Pradesh”.

Why Mayawati will gain in general elections 09 – Game theory perspective

Mayawati is the supremo of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), who has done exceedingly well in the last assembly elections in UP and came to power with clear majority in a state that has not seen the majority numbers since last 3 decades. Definitely riding on high on that year back achievement, BSP holds very good chance of emerging as the clear number one party from the state.

1) Game theory states that reduce your options and send clear signal to your adversaries that you will stand at your point
Mayawati has since beginning maintained that she would not go for any pre-poll alliance. She had even said to meeting any representative from any political party for any sought of talks and negotiations. This gave clear signals that she will not resort to any party alliance. What this has done also is that it has made many regional parties to break free from their Previous alliances namely UPA and NDA. This will lead to the major parties Congress and BJP to fight with many of their previous regional allies and shall lead to seat loss with the regional parties as majority of them are not that strong alone what they are in the alliance. This shall help BSP to emerge as one of the major third party after congress and BJP with a high number of Lok Sabha seats to its credit.


2) Be Compatible. Network Externalities is said to be the success reason for Microsoft Corporation. Its operating system is most easily available and most compatible with all available softwares. This keeps it in demand and also ensures that future softwares will be written with its operating system in mind.
Mayawati is neutral to both congress’ secular ideology and BJP’s national ideology. BSP’s ideology is just one that is “be in power”. This keeps all her options open after the poll results are out, and no matter how many seats she wins nationwide, she will be one of the major voices in the formation of government at the centre. Hail the new King Maker !!

3) Who chicken out first. In Game theory, there is a game setting with two cars coming opposite to each other for head-on collision and who fears first and diverts from the track is said to have chickened out and losses.
Now Mayawati has undertaken a cool trick this time around. The party is fighting elections in almost every state and has given tickets to mostly affluent citizens like big businessman, in lieu ofcourse of their monetry support to the party. This has made the BSP flushed with lot of disposable cash and, accept this, this has led to a rise in the negotiating power of BSP. Yes negotiations are useful the most for those people who don’t care for its outcome. BSP can negotiate for any role and inclusiveness in the next government it wants because it don’t need that in the first place. The funds are already there, state government is not going anywhere from Mayawati’s hands, what does she care for central government. Yeah make her Cabinet Minister and you can have her talking !! God fobids, if she wins more than 50 seats, she might even aspire to be PM!!! (very very difficult though that people would agree of her being PM, but nobody could rule out the outside chance, some people might call her even Obama of India….bite that!!!!)


Note: Above is written with the premises though that BSP shall win about 30-35 seats minimum, as reported by all major dailies and election pundits across the country.

Are we really sure of our choices?

I have been asking this question to myself for quite some time now. Since childhood I have this problem, I am never clear what it that I would prefer is. There is always more than one option and all seems to be right, well as is the saying that there is never a right or wrong, only choices.

From the more important questions like :
a) World Peace and dis-armament of nations
b) Whom to vote for national government
c) To help other countries with your nation’s supplies
d) Terrorism
e) Drug trade

Etc. to some petite ones like :
a) what stream to choose for majors
b) which girl do I like
c) which job to choose

to the frivolous ones like
a) is gel pen better or ball pen
b) should I order burger or pizza

There are never clear straightforward answers. When we don’t have answers ourselves we resort to help from friends and family. We seek their suggestion and guidance. But does that also help to get the right answer? I mean collectively people were wrong when they went with Hitler, when America decided to bomb Japan, when people form naxal groups.
The situation is even worse when a majority group assigns the decision power for them, in hands of one individual. That individual is never right for himself, can he be really right for a group? Doesnt he increases the tragic of going wrong exponentially, because earlier his mistake was his own, now it will be for the whole community?

Questions again to ask are, are we really evolving and does this system of forming corridors of power and assigning power to a elite few who walk past these to decide our future, good enough?

I guess answer is as somebody has said “ like cars in an amusement park, the direction in our life is often determined by collisions” .

We need lesser mortals

Among the hue and cry shouted by economists worldwide regarding the global recession and subsequent bailout packages by the national governments worldwide, there has been raised whole lot issues about the economic viability of these packages. These packages help the inefficient people get bailed out of the trouble of having put the economy in such doldrums in the first place. Such packages effectively actually takes money from the productive workforce and distribute it among the inefficient and scum of the earth public.

What is the relevance of this act? I mean no economist would ever agree that it is good to tax the earning productive workforce of yours, rip them off their hard earned money and distribute it freely among the beggars, non-performers and retards of your nation, in the wake of helping the underprivileged. This will lead to lesser incentive to work among the capable elite and collective downgrade of work quality. This sure sounds like absolute opposite of evolution and would somehow lead to more and more stupid population in the society.

Having said the above still there is need for some less performing retards as well in the society. I tried to come up with some reasons for the same :
1) Knowing that you are better than most other gives you higher sense of self-esteem and keeps you in good spirit.
2) Some of the frivolous acts should be left to under skilled and little incapable people, so that those who are really good have time for some more important jobs to be taken care off.
3) Some of the biggest achievements of the human history had been achieved because of such non-questioning, self-doubting people only, like the Great wall of China, Taj Mahal in India and these days of course so much of construction activity happening at the national level.

When times are good……

It is often very difficult to keep going when the chips are really down. The whole aura of negative energy around one doesn’t let any positive thoughts come nearby that easily. And though it is easier said that keep a low profile and keep working on something meaningful to keep oneself busy and active, often it is the most difficult task. The whole mind goes numb and there are hardly any thoughts left.
I have personal experience of the same. I had gone through a harsh personal period for last some months. I was completely blank, not really sure which way to travel and what to do. Every thing looked dark and there was no clear focus. Lots of self-doubts surfaced up. Only good thing to do in such time is not to ponder at all. Just flow along.
When the tides turn, things start to click on their own. Suddenly you would find everything working for you. There will be good news, a hope for tomorrow. Your labor will start bearing fruits. There will be new energy, clear focus and substance in the tasks at hand and in sight.
I was traveling with my elder cousin brother one day and he was discussing a new business venture he was thinking about which was sought of out of line to what he is doing as of now. I questioned the relevance of that and showed doubts about its success, I can never forget the answer he gave me : -
“ Abhi apna samay accha chal rha hai, jab time bhadiya hota hain to koyla bhi heera ban jaata hain, aur nahi ho to sone (gold) ko bhi log peetal hi samajhte hain”.

I don’t know whether this justifies his act or not, anyways there is never wrong or right in business just courage of conviction, but the above said words does meant quite a lot to me.

Relationships in 20s

With the new found economic development in the country, there is a new social phenomenon seen on the high rise. Young graduates from the colleges are directly getting placed in big companies earning handsomely about 15k to 20k bucks as starting salary. Now this is something un-precedent. Our previous generations didn’t even knew what is earning at this age and here are people giving nightmares to marketing executives because of their purchasing power and frivolous spending habits.

One of the observations seen in the workplaces because of this is quite stark. There was a survey done by one of the leading national daily and it was found that more than 70% people find their love mates and life partner at their work place. I mean here is a generation which is really confidant of itself, doesn’t answer to anybody, majority doesn’t have any responsibility on them, majority come from lower middle class and middle class background and thus earn more than their parents, all good enough conditions for the raging hormones to feel at the top of this world, who can control these people! It is no surprise that a casual meeting, an outing to nearby restaurant with friends, a contagious smile is all that is required for sparks to fly off.

This has far reaching consequences though. Most of these love birds are under high stress because of their relationship problems like ego clashes, work time mismanagement, long distance relationship issues at times, unwilling nature to adjust to other’s needs, and the demanding job doesn’t add any respite. Speaking from personal experience I have seen people, who are really star performers in their team and command lot of respect for their work, have been led to downfall because of their love relationships at work. In quest to devote time to their partners such employees might take their job a little casually and this where it all starts. Little slack in concentration leads to serious issues at their work and soon all the good reputation is all lost. Failure at work place and increased stress add to frustration and tension between these people and then heart breaks. It is therefore not surprising though that the success rate of such relations is very low. Relationships are good sometimes as your partner help to cope up to work stress and it really helps to these people that there is someone who is there to understand them emotionally, but junk lifestyle, improper food habits, excessive work hours and demanding deadlines often gets better off them.

This generation will soon has to learn means and ways to handle above and strike a balance between work and personal life, don’t mix the two, and the sooner it is done the better it is.

Enough is never enough….

So how much is really enough. When will we be ever satisfied?
Here is a government who has managed to save more than 90 crore of its population from dying in the terror attacks and naxalite strikes; still there is no respite from pressure by opposition and general public. Here is a PM who has made his mockery going all out to get the nuclear deal done for the country bowing down in front of the all powerful (read US), even shaking hands with pimps and brokers (read Amar Singh and likes) and still there is no appreciation. Here is a lady who renowned the throne of the country to keep the opposition happy, so what if she saved her relatives from Italy (read Quatrrochi) from a small so called scandal (just a few thousand crores , big DEAL!!), that’s a very small favor isn’t it?
Here is a lady, a daughter, a mother, a granddaughter, assigned with so many responsibilities and expectations, but never refuse to let these take down over her spirit, so what If she doesn’t like to have a rally without heavy national media presence (it is important for a lady you know to ensure her safety).
Here is the prince from India’s first family who is on whirlwind tour of the nation and accusing of the chief ministers of the states about not using the funds allocated by the faithful slaves of his family, so what if these were never released in time and never made available beyond legal papers.
I hope all got by now whom am I really talking about.